NFL Week 6
9:16 PM EDT Friday, October 13 2006
It's time for this week's picks. Last week was another good one, I was 8-4-2, bringing my season total 23-12-2, which 65.71%. I'm betting a fake $500 each game, with 10% juice (Which means I lose $550 for each game wrong, win $500 for each right). I'm up $4,900 on the year. It's only Week 5, so I'm not quiting my job yet, but if this trend continues, I'm going to have to move to Vegas.
If that's the good news, then the bad news is the Ravens. McNair killed us with 2 key interceptions. The Ravens looked like the Ravens of old. No offense and, bottom line, they can't beat a good team on the road. That means they can't finish with a good record, so they have to go on the road in the playoffs and guess what, the teams in the playoffs are good. The only way things turn around for this team is if Jamal gets hurt and Musa Smith and Mike Anderson share the running back duties. Billick won't make the change, even though it is obvious to anyone watching the game that Jamal has no spark and Musa and Mike do. On with the picks:
For reference, I've included each teams record against the spread in their name in parenthesis, which I get from http://covers.usatoday.com.
Bills (3-2-0) -1 over DETROIT (1-4-0)
Well Lions fans, at least you have the Tigers.
RAVENS (3-2-0) -3 over Panthers (0-5-0)
Ravens are solid at home, Panthers are still overrated.
Bengals (3-1-0) -5 over BUCS (2-2)
The Bengals are 12-1-1 ATS in their last 14 road games.
DALLAS (2-2-0) -13 over Texans (1-3-0)
Dallas needs a big win to keep T.O. happy.
ATLANTA (3-1-0) -3 over NY Giants (2-2-0)
Atlanta is tough at home. Vick is so fast on the turf in the dome.
NEW ORLEANS (4-1-0) +3.5 over Philly (4-1-0)
I agree with Simmons on this one, letdown game for Philly.
ST. LOUIS (4-1-0) +3 over Seattle (2-2-0)
Seattle on the road.
Tennessee (2-3-0) +11 over WASHINGTON (2-3-0)
The skins are tough to predict, so I'll take the points.
PITTSBURGH (1-3-0) -6.5 over Chiefs (2-2-0)
At 1-3, Pittsburgh need this game bad.
NY JETS (3-2-0) -2 over Miami (0-5-0)
This is not as much of a lock as you would think. One thing I learned from Jets fans in New York is that the Dolphins always kill the Jets. Still, I'm not taking a team that is 0-5 ATS.
SAN FRANCISCO (3-2-0) +10 over San Diego (3-1-0)
The niners have a good offense, I expect them to put up some points a home.
DENVER (3-1-0) -14.5 over Oakland (0-4-0)
Vegas is seeing how far they can strech it with a 14.5 point spread, but I can't take Oakland until they show some signs of life.
CARDS (1-3-0) +11.5 over Bears (4-1-0)
This is Leinart's big chance, against a great defense on national TV. I think he keeps the Cardinals in it, even without Larry Fitzgerald.
