NFL Week 16
7:51 PM EST Thursday, December 21 2006
Last week was a lame 7-9. After doing these picks all year, I've come to the conclusion that no one can be consistently correct 60% of the time. 60% is gambling equivalent of hitting .400, and 50% is like hitting .300. Continuing with the sports analogies, I guess that makes going 16-0 in a week the equivalent of bowling a 300.
To make things a little more interesting, I'm going to introduce "The Coin". I'm going to make my own picks on all the games, and then go through each game and make a pick based on a coin flip, heads is home, tails away. I want to see what the record of the coin will be. If I can't beat the coin over the course of the long run, that will prove that this is completely random. So here we go:
GREEN BAY -3.5 over Minnesota
This should be Brett Farve's last home game. I expect Farve to play well, and for everyone to remember this as Brett Farve's last great performance, not the embarrassing 5 INT debacle that will happen next week at Soldier Field. Thanks to the NFL Network/RCN Cable feud, I won't be watching this.
Coin: GREEN BAY
OAKLAND +6.5 over Kansas City
Both of these teams suck bad right now. I'll take the home team with 6.5 points. That is going against the 78.41% consensus on wagerline.
Coin: OAKLAND
Baltimore +3.5 over PITTSBURGH
This is going to be a tough one, because Pittsburgh would love to play spoiler and atone for the 27-0 shutout loss at Baltimore a few weeks ago. I think the Ravens will be ready, because they understand the importance of the first round bye.
Coin: Baltimore
Carolina +6.5 over ATLANTA
How am I supposed to pick games in which Carolina and Atlanta are involved? There is no score in this game that would even remotely surprise me.
Coin: ATLANTA
Chicago -5 over DETROIT
The Lions aren't just mailing it in, they are FedExing it in.
Coin: Chicago
Indianapolis -9.5 over HOUSTON
Despite my "lock of the week" call for Cincy last week, Indianapolis looked good. I think they are re-focused and are going to be tough to beat.
Coin: Indianapolis
JACKSONVILLE -3 over New England
I'm going with Jacksonville because they are at home and they need this more than New England does.
Coin: JACKSONVILLE
NY GIANTS -3 over New Orleans
Again, I'll take the home team because they need it more.
Coin: New Orleans
Tampa Bay +3 over CLEVELAND
Looks like Tim Rattay is giving Tampa a spark. On this concept of need, Tim Rattay needs another big game to prove last week wasn't a fluke. He's fighting for a starting job, and the team seems to be reacting to that.
Coin: Tampa Bay
Tennessee +4.5 over BUFFALLO
How can you bet against the hottest player in the league right now? If Tomlinson didn't 462 touchdowns this season, would Vince Young be an MVP candidate? Can you imagine the hype if Tennessee is somehow able to finish 9-7 and get into the playoffs?
Coin: BUFFALO
ST. LOUIS -2 over Washington
Here we are again with 2 completely unpredictable teams. I have no idea in this one, so I'll default to the home team.
Coin: ST. LOUIS
SAN FRANCISCO -4 over Arizona
The Niners are still alive in the sad NFC playoff picture, and could even win the division if Seattle is to lose at home against San Diego and on the road against Tampa Bay, whereas the Cardinals are falling apart.
Coin: SAN FRANCISCO
DENVER -3 over Cincinnati
Now this is a big game. You've got 2 good teams at 8-6 and 50 feet of snow in the ground. I think Denver will be able to run the ball, play solid defense and control the game. It really comes down to Cutler, if he can play well, not turn the ball over, and pick up some first downs to sustain drives, then Denver will win.
Coin: DENVER
SEATTLE +4.5 over San Diego
I know Seattle just lost by 10 at home against the Niners, but you have to take the 4.5 points.
Coin: San Diego
Philadelphia +7 over DALLAS
This falls under the "any time you think a team that is a touchdown underdog or more has a legitimate chance of winning the game outright, go with them" rule.
Coin: Philadelphia
MIAMI -2 over NY Jets
Miami has always been the Jets nemesis, and they'll continue to be this week as they play the role of spoiler.
Coin: NY Jets
Last Week: 7-9
Overall: 88-70-1 (55.7%)
