7:18 PM EDT Saturday, September 15 2007
The Red Sox effectively clinched the division today, and Beckett effectively clinched the Cy Young. That's ok, A-Rod has had the MVP clinched for a while. But one thing that bothers me, and has for a while, is the way warnings work in baseball. When a Yankee pitcher accidentally hits Youkalis, on a 1-2 count in a 1-1 game with Big Papi on deck, on a Pitch Youk dove into the plate on (admittedly much like Jeter does), on a pitch he arguably swung at, and then Josh Beckett hits Youkalis' counter point Giambi with a first pitch fastball with 2 outs, nobody on and a 4 run lead, only the Sox should receive a warning. Why should the Yankees be penalized? What if the Yankees hit another batter, totally unintentionally? He is thrown out of the game because Beckett hit somebody on purpose? And automatic suspension are issued to Torre and the pitcher? I'm not saying Beckett shouldn't have hit Giambi, they've got to send a message with all that's happened with Youkalis, but again, why should the Yankees be penalized for this? If the Yankees bring in a guy and he pretty clearly throws at a Red Sox in retaliation, then the umpire can thrown him out of the game, but I don't think that both teams should receive a warning. Your team should only receive a warning if your team intentionally throws at someone.
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Yankees, MLB |
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10:06 AM EDT Saturday, September 15 2007
XM and Sirius are trying to merge, but running into anticompetitive claims. Personally, I don't drive that much, and when I do I listen to music on an iPod or MP3 CD. I rarely listen to the radio, unless I'm trying to pick up local coverage of a baseball or football game while on a long trip. If I could get satellite radio for $10 a month that would give me every NFL, every MLB game, and Jam On, I would be sold. Until then, I will stick to their competitors, the iPod and FM radio.
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9:51 AM EDT Saturday, September 15 2007
Last night's improbable win, was amazing, but it means nothing unless the Yankees can sweep Boston. If they do, they will will be 2.5 games back, which is deficit that can be made up. After this series, the Yankees have 13 games left, Boston 12. And again, assuming a sweep, the Yankees would be 12-7 against Boston this year (after a 1-5 start), which gives them the tie-breaker for the division. If Yankees finish 10-3, which is totally feasible with 3 against Baltimore, 4 against Toronto, 3 at Tampa and 3 at Baltimore, and Boston finishes 7-5, which is probably less feasible with 3 at Toronto, 3 at Tampa, 2 against Oakland and 4 against Minnesota, they would finish in a tie at 96-66. With the tiebreaker, that gives the Yankees the division and possibly the #1 seed, if the Angels and the Indians each lose 5 or more in the remainder of the season. If all this happens, and the Yankees go on to win the world series, we'll look back on this game as one of the turning points. If not, at least it shows we can come back against Okajima and Papelbon.
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3:26 PM EDT Wednesday, July 19 2006
I found out about an interesting site today called FanGraphs.com. It tracks an interesting stat called Win Probability Added (WPA). Here's how it basically works. To calculate WPA you first have to have the probability table for each unique game situation. The game situation is determined by the inning, the score, the runners on base. The table is formed by determining the percentage of time a team has won in that given situation.
For example, if you looked at every game where the home team is down by 2 runs, with 2 out and runners on first and second, you might see that the home team goes on to win 35% of those games (I just made that up, I don't have the actual table). Then, say that batter hits a home run, so the home team is now up 1 run, with nobody on and 2 out. Now that is a new situation, in which the home team might win 60% of the time. In that at-bat, the batter has just increase his team's chance of winning by 25%. Had he struck out in that at-bat instead of hitting a home run, he would have decreased his team's chances of winning.
WPA is an accumulated running total of how much you increase and decrease your team's chances of winning with each at-bat during the season. I think this stat is valid in the recent discussions about A-Rod value to the Yankees. As of today, here are the top 5 batters in WPA:
- Albert Pujols - 640
- David Ortiz - 354
- Derek Jeter - 324
- Jermaine Dye - 318
- Barry Bonds - 317
This seems pretty accurate to me, it is generally accepted that Pujols and Ortiz are the two batters contributing most to their teams. Interestingly, A-Rod's WPA is 52.3. So there your have it, emperical evidence that A-Rod is simply not doing enough to help the team win. Also, Randy Johnson's WPA is -105.7, whereas Chien-Ming Wang's WPA is 152.
Also, in reading about this, I was reading about the Ultimate Grand Slam, which is a walk-off grand slam with your team down 3 runs, which is 90 WPA, the most you can earn in one at-bat. This article points out that Roger Conner hit the first ever grand slam and it was an ultimate grand slam. Also, it gives the answer to a trivia question I have wondered about for a long time. Whose career HR record did Babe Ruth break? The answer is Roger Conner, who had 138 when he retired in 1897.
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Yankees, MLB |
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10:30 AM EDT Wednesday, July 12 2006
So I couldn't have been more wrong in my prediction of the All-Star game, the AL won a close, low scoring game, I predicted the NL to win a high scoring blow out. There was some horrendous analysis of the game, both on TV and online, that I just have to comment on.
First, Fox shows a locker room speech by Phil Garner in which he says (I'm paraphrasing) "We have no signs. Swing away on 3-0 and steal bases when ever you want. This is your chance to strut your stuff". Coming out of that clip, Joe Buck states that the managers will be managing the game like it is game 7 of the world series. That just makes no sense at all. This is managed more like a softball game than it is game 7 of the world series. In fact, Phil Garner even said something to that effect while Fox was doing their in game interview. I think it was when Soriano stole second he said "It's like Little League, we have no signs". So Fox, we get it, we know it counts and you would like that to drive up the ratings, but stop lying to us and telling us they are managing it like game 7 of the world series.
Continuing with this theme, Alan Robinson praises Phil Garner for his aggresive managing. Did you watch the game? Phil Garner was on the headset with Joe Buck and Tim McCarver when Soriano and Beltran stole those bases. Garner had no idea those guys were going to steal. When Beltran stole 3rd, he starting talking about the old baseball adage that says don't steal 3rd with two outs, saying Beltran probably should have stolen 3rd. Then, when the wild pitch game in, all three of them joked about Garner's great managing, having Beltran steal 3rd.
This post over on Baseball Toaster correct states that Vlad's HR off of Penny was amazing. I agree, but I wasn't shocked. I remember thinking that Penny was throwning hard, but if he keeps just throwing fastballs, one of these guys will turn it around. But I have to criticize this post for saying that he can't think of anyone else in the big league who could hit a pitch that high and that hard out. Hello? Aren't you a Yankee fan? Gary Sheffield comes to mind.
But the worst of them all is Jeff Passan's faux player microphones transcript. You just have to read this, I'll really can't explain it, other than it's like a really bad rip-off of The Sports Guy.
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