9:01 PM EDT Wednesday, October 25 2006
Last week was rough. 5-6-1, first week under .500. I didn't get my picks into wagerline (thought I did), so I'm going to have to keep track of my record here. Including the two previous losses that I didn't get into wagerline, my record is 30-21-3, %58.82. I'm gonna be away this weekend, so I'm gonna get my picks in early.
Arizona +3.5 over GREEN BAY
GB is allowing 293 yards a game, so I like them in a shootout
Atlanta +4.5 over CINCY
Vick had a big game last week, hopefully he can have another
Baltimore +1 over NO
If the Ravens lose this game, they will be in serious playoff jeopardy, due to their upcoming schedule
TENNESSEE -3 over Houston
Houston looked good last week, but won't look good on the road
Jags +7 over PHILLY
Jags bounce back
KANSAS CITY -6 over Seattle
Seattle on the road without Hassleback, no shot
CHICAGO -16 over SF
The bears will win by 40, coming off the scare in Arizona and the bye
NY GIANTS -9.5 over TB
TB can't get it done on the road
SD -9 over St. Louis
SD should be able to dominate the game with their running game
Indy +2.5 over DENVER
I have no faith in Jake Plummer
CLEVELAND -1 over NY Jets
When in doubt, go with the home team
OAKLAND +9 over Pittsburgh
Has oakland turned a corner? Let's hope so
CAROLINA -5 over Dallas
Although Carolina is 0-6-1 against the spread, I can't pick Romo.
New England -1 over MINNESOTA
Not sure what to think about Minnesota, but you can't go wrong picking NE when in doubt
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9:16 PM EDT Friday, October 13 2006
It's time for this week's picks. Last week was another good one, I was 8-4-2, bringing my season total 23-12-2, which 65.71%. I'm betting a fake $500 each game, with 10% juice (Which means I lose $550 for each game wrong, win $500 for each right). I'm up $4,900 on the year. It's only Week 5, so I'm not quiting my job yet, but if this trend continues, I'm going to have to move to Vegas.
If that's the good news, then the bad news is the Ravens. McNair killed us with 2 key interceptions. The Ravens looked like the Ravens of old. No offense and, bottom line, they can't beat a good team on the road. That means they can't finish with a good record, so they have to go on the road in the playoffs and guess what, the teams in the playoffs are good. The only way things turn around for this team is if Jamal gets hurt and Musa Smith and Mike Anderson share the running back duties. Billick won't make the change, even though it is obvious to anyone watching the game that Jamal has no spark and Musa and Mike do. On with the picks:
For reference, I've included each teams record against the spread in their name in parenthesis, which I get from http://covers.usatoday.com.
Bills (3-2-0) -1 over DETROIT (1-4-0)
Well Lions fans, at least you have the Tigers.
RAVENS (3-2-0) -3 over Panthers (0-5-0)
Ravens are solid at home, Panthers are still overrated.
Bengals (3-1-0) -5 over BUCS (2-2)
The Bengals are 12-1-1 ATS in their last 14 road games.
DALLAS (2-2-0) -13 over Texans (1-3-0)
Dallas needs a big win to keep T.O. happy.
ATLANTA (3-1-0) -3 over NY Giants (2-2-0)
Atlanta is tough at home. Vick is so fast on the turf in the dome.
NEW ORLEANS (4-1-0) +3.5 over Philly (4-1-0)
I agree with Simmons on this one, letdown game for Philly.
ST. LOUIS (4-1-0) +3 over Seattle (2-2-0)
Seattle on the road.
Tennessee (2-3-0) +11 over WASHINGTON (2-3-0)
The skins are tough to predict, so I'll take the points.
PITTSBURGH (1-3-0) -6.5 over Chiefs (2-2-0)
At 1-3, Pittsburgh need this game bad.
NY JETS (3-2-0) -2 over Miami (0-5-0)
This is not as much of a lock as you would think. One thing I learned from Jets fans in New York is that the Dolphins always kill the Jets. Still, I'm not taking a team that is 0-5 ATS.
SAN FRANCISCO (3-2-0) +10 over San Diego (3-1-0)
The niners have a good offense, I expect them to put up some points a home.
DENVER (3-1-0) -14.5 over Oakland (0-4-0)
Vegas is seeing how far they can strech it with a 14.5 point spread, but I can't take Oakland until they show some signs of life.
CARDS (1-3-0) +11.5 over Bears (4-1-0)
This is Leinart's big chance, against a great defense on national TV. I think he keeps the Cardinals in it, even without Larry Fitzgerald.
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7:31 PM EDT Monday, October 9 2006
It seems like no matter what the Ravens do, they get no respect from across the league. The Ravens most vocal critic is Bill Simmons a.k.a The Sports Guy. His predictions are almost laughable. Here's the latest:
BRONCOS (-4) over Ravens
Four predictions for this one:
Air McNair gets fully exposed. He has played four decent minutes in the past two weeks. You can't pull that crap against a defense like Denver's.
Once the Broncos get a lead, Shanahan won't ask Plummer to do anything. And I mean, anything. He'll do the same thing Marty did last week.
You will hear a lot of barely audible "IN-COM-PLETE" chants on your TV.
Mike Tirico officially starts to look like one of the kids from "The Squid and the Whale."
Here's the best part, directly below that is his record on the season:
Last Week: 6-8
Season: 29-29-2
Nice. Anyway, he's not the only one with bad things to say. Joe Theisman, another top NFL analyst, had this to say:
"This is going to be a tough game for the Baltimore Ravens to win"
He's backed up on this. Not one of ESPN's 7 "experts" picked the Ravens tonight.
But here's Ray Lewis take on it:
"I don't mean to keep bringing up comparisons to 2000, but I remember vividly that we were not picked one week during that season to win a game," Ravens linebacker Ray Lewis said Thursday. "So we love it. Keep us underdogs. There's no expectations when we go in. You hear all the talk all week, that they can't do this and they can't do that. OK."
I love it too. In all fariness, I can't guarantee a win for the Ravens tonight but if they do win, it will be because Jake "The Mistake" Plummer will throw a couple balls to Ed Reed. Then people will say Plummer cost the Broncos the game, the Ravens will still get no respect and we'll be home underdogs again against Carolina next week.
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10:05 PM EDT Wednesday, October 4 2006
Last week I was 9-5. If I could do that every week I'd be a rich man, except I'd have to live in another country or Las Vegas in order to collect my winnings because our government has make online gambling very difficult from within the U.S. Anyway, I was technically 10-4 because I entered KC as my pick inadvertently. The highlight of the week was definately watching McNair lead the Ravens back to victory against one of the best defenses in the NFL. One of the most exciting Ravens games I've been to in a while and I got a great view of it from the club level, thanks to my Uncle Jim. Sports Guy, I'm waiting for my apology.
Although I did have a good week, I do have to poke fun at myself for a few of these predictions:
"Without Trent Green the Chiefs just don’t have enough offense to blow the niners out."
"Washington will get shutout at home"
"The Bengals might be the best team in the league"
You can't win 'em all. Anyway, on with the picks:
CHICAGO -10 over Buffalo
Too Much Monster of the Midway
Cleveland +9 over CAROLINA
Carolina is still over-rated
Detroit +7 over MINNESOTA
I could see Detroit winning this game. Any time you have a 7 point underdog with a decent chance of winning the game outright, go with it.
Miami +10 over NEW ENGLAND -10
Which New England will show up, the one that look horrible at home two weeks ago against Denver or the one that pounded Cincy on the road last week? I'll give Nick Saben the benefit of the doubt and take the points.
St. Louis -3 over GREEN BAY
Too Much Brett Farve
Tampa Bay +6.5 over NEW ORLEANS
I'm not buying into New Orleans yet.
INDIANAPOLIS -18 over Tennessee
The colts will win by 5 touchdowns as Peyton works on padding his stats.
NY GIANTS -4.5 over Washington
I like the Giants at home, even though the skins seem to be on a roll.
ARIZONA +3.5 over Kansas City
The Matt Leinart era begins, as does the draft second guessing after an impressive showing by Leinart.
NY Jets +6.5 over JACKSONVILLE
The Jets only losses are close games to New England and the Colts. They can cover 6.5.
SAN FRANCISCO -3 over Oakland
Randy Moss is requesting to be traded. At this rate, Oakland appears to be looking at an 0-16 season. Mike Nolan has to bounce back or he will be on the hot seat.
PHILLY -1 over Dallas
A wise man once said when in doubt on a game with no spread, go with the home team
SAN DIEGO -3.5 over Pittsburgh
Ben Roethlisberger is the worst Quarterback in the league. I'm not making this up. San Diego's defense is tough.
Baltimore +4 over DENVER
We lost by just 2 points last year at Denver with Kyle Boller at the helm. We can do this.
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7:04 PM EDT Friday, September 29 2006
I've read Simmons' (I'm done calling him the Sports Guy) most recent
article on NFL Week 4. First of all, it has prompted me to take an
action I've been meaning to do for a while on my blog. Just like
Simmons does, I'm going to post my NFL picks for each week, and then
keep track of my record as the season goes on. I've been picking the
games on wagerline and you can see my record so far.
Note that I don't have all the games picked, because the first week of
the season I was in Vegas and couldn't get online without paying $10 a
day, so I didn't enter my picks, but I did bet at the sports books. I
actually did very well, despite Mike Nolan's inexplicable late field
goal, and I could legitimately include the games that I picked that
weekend. I hit a 4 game parley on college games on saturday and ended
up 6-3 on the 9 games I bet on on Sunday. But since I didn't get them
entered into wagerline, I feel that they shouldn't count. So anyway,
here's my record has it stands now:
18-13-1 58.06%
Not bad so far. Simmons?
23-21-2 52.27%
That's actually pretty good for him. If I remember correctly, he finished last season
below .500, but I don't have ESPN insider to be able to confirm that.
Incidently, his wife, the Sports Gal has a better record that he does:
25-19-2 56.82%
She also has a funny bit in the sidebar about Tivo and Lost in the
article. When does the Sports Gal get her own website? I'd read
that.
Anyway, now that I've exposed Simmons for the fraud that he is,
showing that both myself and his wife know more about football than he
does, let's examine some of the outlandish claims he makes in this
article:
McNair is good for eight to 10 uncatchable throws a game:
one-hoppers, floaters, sailers, you name it. He looks terrible.
Washed-up, even. It just hasn't manifested itself yet.
But it's coming. Oh, yes ... it's coming.
You have to believe me.
From a gambling standpoint, be very careful about trusting the 2006 Ravens.
And yes, I'm using short paragraphs to stress the urgency here.
Be careful.
Be very careful.
Very.
Careful.
There's even an image with a caption re-iterationing this point. Here's the deal with McNair. I'll admit some of his throws, as with any QB, are a little off. But one thing I can say is that he seems to be intentionally missing his throws in places where the ball won't get
picked off. In other words, he throws it in places that only his receiver can catch the ball, where it can't be picked off. An incompletion is much better than a pick, especially when you've been playing in games with the lead and one of the best defenses in the
NFL. Kyle Boller, are you taking notes?
And last week, I seem to remember him leading 3 spearate scoring drives in the 4th quarter, on the road, to overcome a 14-3 deficit. This would have been completely inconceivable just a year ago with
Kyle Boller at the helm. Cleveland may not win a lot of games this year, but I can say that they were playing well on that Sunday, at home against a division rival, a division rival that used to be the team in Cleveland until their owner moved the team to Baltimore.
So my point is don't understand all this negativity against McNair. Later in the article he says, speaking of the Chargers:
I think they're the best team right now, and I think they
throttle the Ravens in Baltimore on Sunday
Let me get this straight, the Chargers win a road game at Oakland and a home game against Tennessee, two teams who clearly, already at Week 4, have a 0% change of making the playoffs, and the Chargers are the best team in the NFL? The have an untested QB, who is going on the road against a good defensive team, yet McNair is the one that is going to lose the game? All because Phillip Rivers was drafted ahead of Kellen Winslow Jr.? What? I seem to remember Robert Gallery being picked AHEAD of Phillip Rivers, how's that working out?
The picks:
Arizona +7.5 over ATLANTA
Kurt Warner is going to remain the start despite some speculation at the beginning of the week that the Matt Leinert era was about to begin in Arizona. Atlanta is looking to rebound from the embarassing loss at New Orleans on Monday night. Arizona has gave up 107 yards rushing to SF at home in a game in which Arizona lead most of the way and 146 yards rushing at Seattle in a loss, but head St. Louis to just 63 yards on 28 attempts in a win at home last week. The keys to the game are going to be can Arizona stop the Atlanta rushing attack and can Kurt Warner hold on to the ball. I'm taking the 7.5 points, but this one would go either way.
Dallas -9.5 over TENNESSEE
Too much T.O
JETS +9 over Indy
The Jets have looked better than expected and there's a 50% chance of rain
Miami -3.5 over HOUSTON
Houston, along with Oakland, must be bet against every week until they play one decent game.
BUFFALO -1 over Minnesota
When in doubt on a game with no spread, go with the home team
New Orleans +7 over Carolina
Everyone thinks the Saints were just riding on emotion last week, but I think they are actually an improved team, playing with a purpose. NO is 3-0 against the spread and Carolina, a perennially over-ranked team, is 0-3 ATS.
BALTIMORE +2.5 over San Diego
Too much Phillip Rivers
SF +7 over Kansas City
Joe's going to kill me for this one, but I think the Chiefs have a good chance to win this game, but wouldn't be surpised if they don't cover. I'd take the chiefs at -6.5, but not at -7. Without Trent Green the Chiefs just don't have enough offense to blow the niners out.
RAMS +5.5 over Lions
Simmons said it himself, the Lions are 21-62 since Matt Millen took over. He ranked the Lions at #30, ahead of just Oakland and Houston, but St. Louis at #18, yet then proceeds to pick the Lions on the road. Huh? Do Lions fans want Joey Harrington back yet?
Browns -2.5 over OAKLAND
Too Much Art Shell
Jags -3 over REDSKINS
Washington will get shutout at home
BENGALS -5.5 over Pats
The Bengals might be the best team in the league
CHICAGO -3.5 over Seattle
NEVER BET ON SEATTLE ON THE ROAD. EVER.
PHILLY -11 over GB
It's a lot of points, but I think Farve throws a late INT that gets returned for a TD to give the Eagles a two touchdown or more win
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