9:18 AM EDT Friday, October 12 2007
4-10 last week, a complete disaster, bringing the season record to 6 games under .500. There's just not much more that can be said:
Cincinnati -3 over KANSAS CITY
Cincinnati has too much offense
JACKSONVILLE -6.5 over Houston
Houston lost by 10 on the road at Atlanta 2 weeks ago, Jacksonville can surely cover that.
CLEVELAND -4.5 over Miami
Miami kept it close at Houston last week, but I think Cleveland is better than Houston.
CHICAGO -5 over Minnesota
Greise is probably playing well enough to give Chicago a chance to win
N.Y. JETS +3 over Philadelphia
Interesting match up of teams with very angry, vocal fan bases. I'll take the AFC home team with the points, but this can go either way in a game where both teams really need the win.
St. Louis +9.5 over BALTIMORE
The Ravens are 0-5 against the spread, and St. Louis hung in there last week against a decent Arizona team. I expect to see more of the same from the Ravens, barely enoguh offense to win and miscues in the secondary that lead to TDs.
On a side note, listening to this week's BS Report, Bill and Sal are both shocked as to how Kyle Boller isn't the Ravens starting QB yet. And not because of McNair's injuries, but that "there must be something going on with him (Boller) that we don't know about, because he's clearly the better than McNair at this point". Here's what's going on that you don't know about. It doesn't matter. Brian Billick is not who what though he was. He is not an offensive genius. The backup QB is going to continue to look like the right option until we stop running this ridiculous dink and dunk offense. We have no 4 or even god forbid 5 receiver sets in the whole offense. Our passing game scares no one, so defenses just load the box, knowing the the play will either be:
- A run
- A pass to a back
- A short pass over the middle to a Tight End, Mason or Clayton, where there is no opportunity for run after the catch
- A deep pass down the side line or a deep out that we won't complete anyway even if the guy is wide open
One common thread that all good offenses in the NFL (Pats, Dallas, Steelers, Indy, Cincy) have is a variety of different formations, which keeps the defense guessing. That and a good offensive line, but the point is the Ravens have, as they have had every year for the entire existence of the franchise, a boring, safe, predictable offense. The problem is that our defense is no longer the elite defense it once was, and you can't count on winning a game 23-7 with an INT return for TD and 4 field goals, two of which were set up by great field position by fumble recoveries by our defense. In past, we would get a lead, teams would be forced to throw to try to catch up, and sacks and fumbles ensue, leading to defensive touchdowns and big wins. Now, if we do get a lead, teams start throwing with success, and games end up being close even against the worst teams in the league.
Tennessee +3 over TAMPA BAY
I'll go with the AFC
Washington +3 over GREEN BAY
Looks like Farve's Magicial Mystery Tour is over
ARIZONA -4.5 over Carolina
Oh. My. God.
New England -5 over DALLAS
You know you are good when you are 5 point favorite on the road against a 5-0 team.
Oakland +10 over San Diego
Too many points, Oakland not that bad, San Diego not that good
SEATTLE -6.5 over New Orleans
Seattle's a lock at home
N.Y. GIANTS -3.5 over Atlanta
Another Monday night barn burner. Hey, NFL, I've got a suggestion for you. Schedule only rivals and good teams on Monday night, and you avoid have disasters like this. And oh yeah, send Kornheiser back to PTI where he belongs.
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9:28 AM EDT Sunday, October 7 2007
I finally had a solid week last week at 9-5, which brought the season record to an even 28-28-6. The strategy to go with the underdog if I had any doubt in the favorite seemed to work last week, so we stick with that this week.
Arizona -3.5 over ST. LOUIS
St. Louis has nothing going for them right now, and Gus Frerotte isn't the answer
Atlanta +9 over TENNESSEE
Too many points
NEW ORLEANS -3.5 over Carolina
This is good week for New Orleans to get back on track
NEW ENGLAND -16.5 over Cleveland
You just have to keep going with New England until somebody figures out a way to slow them down.
Detroit +3.5 over WASHINGTON
Detroit's passing game should keep them in it
KANSAS CITY +1 over Jacksonville
This one's tough, so I've decided to refer to one of my old rules, "When in doubt in a game with no spread, go with the home team". Since that coincides with only picking the favorite if I'm sure, this should work out.
HOUSTON -5 over Miami
Miami has shown no signs of life this year.
N.Y. Jets +3.5 over N.Y. GIANTS
I definitely have some doubt with the Giants
PITTSBURGH -6 over Seattle
Seattle did look good last week, but they certainly don't have a good enough road record to think they are going to go into Pittsburgh and get a win
Tampa Bay +9.5 over INDIANAPOLIS
Too many injuries for the Colts
Baltimore -3.5 over SAN FRANCISCO
The Ravens D should be able to hold down Trent Dilfer
DENVER +1 over San Diego
It's tough to tell if either of these teams are good right now, so I'll go with the home team.
GREEN BAY -3 over Chicago
John Madden will be gushing with Farve love all night
BUFFALO +10 over Dallas -10
Dallas has put up some big points against Chicago and St. Louis, but the reality is those teams just aren't good. I like the story line of Trent Edwards trying to steal away the starting job from J.P Losman, which if the Bills can pull of this upset, he will have effectively done.
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8:09 PM EDT Saturday, September 29 2007
After another tough week at 5-8-3, the overall record is at 19-23-6. I did a little analysis and determined that I am 9-15 when picking favorites and 10-8 when picking underdogs, so this week, I decided if I had any doubt about the favorite, that I would just go with the underdog. I ended up picking just 4 of 14 favorites, but somehow 11 of 14 home teams.
CLEVELAND +4 over Baltimore
Our defense just isn't what it once was, which should be obvious after almost allowing comeback wins at home against the Jets and then the Cardinals.
DETROIT +2.5 over Chicago
Brian Griese?
MINNESOTA +1 over Green Bay
Could go either way
Houston -2.5 over ATLANTA
Atlanta is really bad, they are going to be giving Kansas City a run for the #1 pick.
BUFFALO +3.5 over N.Y. Jets
Buffalo should be able to keep this within a field goal at home, although the rookie Trent Edwards is a big question mark
Oakland +4 over MIAMI -4
Culpepper is going to be looking to make a statement in this one
DALLAS -13 over St. Louis
St. Louis has too many injuries
SAN FRANCISCO +1 over Seattle
Seattle, road, enough said
Tampa Bay +3 over CAROLINA
Tough to say with the NFC South
INDIANAPOLIS -10 over Denver
Peyton owns Denver
SAN DIEGO -11.5 over Kansas City
I'm not picking KC for the rest of the year, I'll just put that out there right now.
ARIZONA +6 over Pittsburgh -6
The whisenhunt factor should give Arizona a chance, plus Hines Ward is out
N.Y. GIANTS +2.5 over Philadelphia
Maybe Eli and the gang can keep it going at home. The Eagles are nothing without their distracting uniforms.
CINCINNATI +7.5 over New England
Cincy will keep this close in a shootout at home.
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3:55 PM EDT Friday, September 21 2007
So after 2 weeks, I'm 14-15-3. It's nice to see the sports guy has come to the same conclusion that I have, which is that picking NFL games against the spread is a coin flip. I think that is what this exercise of me making picks each week has become; an attempt to prove the theory that picking NFL games correctly against the spread at a rate of above 60% is nearly impossible. But the show must go on...
BALTIMORE -9 over Arizona
McNair should be back at the helm, which should mean our offense should be a little more productive, although Boller played pretty well last week. Arizona will test our corners with Boldin and Fitzgerald though.
NEW ENGLAND -16.5 over Buffalo
New England looks unstoppable, Buffalo looks atrocious.
Detroit +5.5 over PHILADELPHIA
Again, 2 teams headed in opposite directions.
Indianapolis -6 over HOUSTON
I want to pick Houston, but Andre Johnson is out, and I'm not sure Houston has come this far yet.
JETS -3 over Miami
As much as this scares me, and as much as Miami has been a nemesis to the Jets, even with Fireman Ed out with a knee, I can't pick Miami. The Jets are too good to be 0-3. As you can imagine, I'm not to sure about this pick. Why can't the Mangenius just start Kellen Clemens and make this an easy pick?
Minnesota +3 over KANSAS CITY
San Diego -5 over GREEN BAY
One of the elite teams in the AFC against one of the middle of the pack teams of the NFC. This isn't hard.
PITTSBURGH -9.5 over San Francisco
St. Louis +3.5 over TAMPA BAY
I'm leaning towards St. Louis anyway, the 3.5 makes it an easy choice.
SEATTLE -3.5 over Cincinnati
I find this quote troublesome:
"They're put in the right spots," Bengals coach Marvin Lewis said Monday, repeatedly refusing to go into detail. "They just have to get it done, do it right consistently."
Although I hate the 3.5 points. I wish it was 2.5, I could see Seattle winning on a late field goal.
OAKLAND -3 over Cleveland
It's tough to imagine Cleveland winning on the road
DENVER -3 over Jacksonville
Straight from the Hoser:
From the "We Can't Make This Stuff Up" Department - Broncos kicker Jason Elam will be releasing his first novel, Monday Night Jihad, early next year. It's about a terrorism-fighting placekicker who also doubles as a supermodel - we believe it's based on the life of Toni Fritsch.
No, seriously.
Carolina -3.5 over ATLANTA
Atlanta doesn't scare anybody until they get Leftwich in there
WASHINGTON over N.Y. Giants +3.5
The Giants are totally dysfunctional right now. It's a wonder how Coughlin has made it this far.
Dallas +3 over CHICAGO
Dallas looks like they could be the team to beat in the NFC this year.
Tennessee +4 over NEW ORLEANS
What if last year was just a fluke, and New Orleans has reverted back to the perennially inept franchise that they are? Maybe this is the way it's going to be, that one NFC team plays just well enough each year to be 13-3 but have no legitimate shot at winning a super bowl team, and then just returns to mediocrity the next season? I predict Detroit is this year's version.
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6:55 PM EDT Friday, September 14 2007
Shaky start last week with 6-8-2, but hopefully I learned a few things and we can make up for it this week.
Atlanta +10.5 over JACKSONVILLE
Is Tennessee that good or is Jacksonville that bad? Probably a little bit of both, I'll take the points.
Buffalo +10 over PITTSBURGH
This offseason I was heard saying Pittsburgh would win 3 games this year. Well, they've already won 1, so they're on their on way :). But seriously, they aren't this good, give me the points.
Cincinnati -7 over CLEVELAND
Brady Quinn or not, the Browns still suck.
NY GIANTS -1 over Green Bay
The Giants look good on the road despite the loss and Green Bay looked bad at home despite the win. With virtually no spread, I'll take the Giants, Eli or Lorenzen.
CAROLINA -6.5 over Houston
We learned nothing from Houston last week, as they beat Herm's Hapless Chiefs at home. Carolina won in a blow out on the road, so they get the nod.
TENNESSEE +7 over Indianapolis
Everyone's talking about Indy's D last week, but I didn't see it. I saw the Saints offense playing poorly. Tennessee has something going with their running game. There's no way the Titans get blown out, so I'll take the points at home.
New Orleans -3.5 over TAMPA BAY
The Saints will get back on track this week.
San Francisco +3 over ST. LOUIS
Flip a coin
Dallas -3.5 over MIAMI
Dallas should win big
DETROIT -3 over Minnesota
36 points on the road at Oakland? Detroit could be for real, look for Calvin Johnson to have some more big plays.
ARIZONA +3 over Seattle
Seattle has historically been a bad bet on the road
CHICAGO -12 over Kansas City
With the first overall selection in the 2008 NFL Draft, the Kansas City Chiefs select...
NY Jets +10 over BALTIMORE
Nope, not with Kyle Boller at the helm
Oakland +10 over DENVER
Oakland can keep this one close, Denver can't seem to get in the end zone.
NEW ENGLAND -3.5 over San Diego
Am I the only guy in the world who doesn't get why this videotaping thing is a big deal? So they videotaped signals, and then what? Are we too assume that somehow the Patriots' offensive coordinator is able to, during the 25 second play clock, use whatever information he knows about the opponents signals to read that, then adjust his own team's play call based on that? And it's not like it could even be used during the game they are playing, just think of the logistics of it. They have to get the video tape, and then review it to try to see if they can figure out what's going on. I mean, isn't it even debatable whether or not this should be against the rules? I'm assuming I'm wrong, someone send me a link to the article that explains exactly how the Patriots gained this huge advantage as a result of this.
By the way, don't even compare this with Barry Bonds. If he takes steroids, he trades in serious health risks to be able to get stronger, which helps him turn warning track fly outs into home runs. Other players (and young players) then see no repercussions and assume they also need to risk their health to keep up. We need a reality check here people.
PHILADELPHIA -6.5 over Washington
Philly gets back on track at home
Last Week: 6-8-2
Season: 6-8-2
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