8:42 AM EDT Wednesday, September 5 2007
Another NFL season is upon us, and with that, come another year of my semi-accurate NFL Picks.
INDY -6 over New Orleans
I'm going to pick against the Colts at home against an NFC opponent. Right.
Tenn +6.5 over JACKSONVILLE
This Garrad/Leftwich thing is black cloud hanging over Jacksonville. The Titans were 8-5 with Vince Young at the helm, including a win over Jacksonville in their last meeting.
CLE +4.5 over Pitt
This is one of those spreads that I look at and say, wait, Cleveland MUST be on the road. What blows my mind is that %74 of people are picking Pittsburgh. Are you kidding me? To cover 4.5 on the road?
GB +3 over Philly
What's with all the home underdogs?
JETS +6.5 over New England
Homedog
Miami +3 over WASHINGTON
I'm going to take AFC over NFC. Washington doesn't have a lot of offense, and Trent Green probably has some life left in him.
HOUSTON -3 over Kansas City
Huard vs. Schwab, not exactly Montana-Elway. I just can't give Herm the nod on the road.
Denver -3 over BUFFALO
Buffalo is going to be horrible if not worse.
STL -1 over Carolina
I'm going to invoke one of my old rules here. When in doubt in a game with no spread, go with the home team.
ATL +3 over Minnesota
For some ridiculous reason, I have this feeling that Atlanta will be good this year. By the end of the season we'll be talking about how bizarre it is that Atlanta actually got better without Vick.
SEATTLE -6.5 vs Tampa Bay
Ooh, and opportunity to use another rule, except this one I think I owe to Bill Simmons. Never pick a road underdog unless you think they can win the game outright.
OAKLAND -2 over Detroit
Last time I checked, Jon Kitna is Detroit's Quarterback. This is a road game for Detroit, right?
SAN DIEGO -6 over Chicago
I would really like to pick the Bears. I think their defense can contain Tomlinson and put the pressure on Rivers, but I just don't think the Bears have enough offense.
NY Giants +6 over DALLAS
Wade Phillips
Arizona +3 over SF
Without Denny Green out of the way, I expect the talent on the Cardinals to shine.
Baltimore +2.5 over Cincinnati
The Ravens, underrated as usual.
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3:26 PM EST Sunday, February 4 2007
I haven't be putting my picks online for a few weeks. I haven't been all that interested in the games since the Ravens got knocked out. But we're almost 3 hours from kickoff of the SuperBowl, and I've got to put a pick in. I'm going with the Bears, and in fact, I'm not even taking the points. I'll take the money line, which is close to 2-1 right now. My Dad was at the NFC Championship game and told me what he thought the score would be and it sounded good to me:
Bears 27, Colts 20
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9:25 AM EST Saturday, January 13 2007
Last week on Sunday, I went with New York, New York. So I split those games and ended up 1-3 on the weekend. I'm feeling more confident about my picks for this weekend:
BALTIMORE -3.5 over Indianapolis
Much as been made about the old Baltimore Colts returning to face the new Balitmore Ravens. The Ravens have had a week off to get ready, and I think their defense wins this game.
NEW ORLEANS -5 over Philadelphia
The Jeff Garcia magical mystery tour ends this week.
CHICAGO -9 over Seattle
The monster of the midway will shut down Seattle, so it doesn't matter what Rex does.
New England +5 over SAN DIEGO
You just can't take Marty Schottenheimer over Bill Belichick in the playoffs.
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12:29 PM EST Saturday, January 6 2007
Last week I was 9-7. It occurred to me as I added up my season's final record that somewhere along the line, I seriously messed up the running tally. As of last week, I said my record was 95-78-1. How could I have possibly had only one tie? So I went back through each blog entry and Wagerline and re-tallied everything. The final tally is 130-104-6 (54.17%). Using the standard Vegas bet $11 to win $10, I would have earn $156 dollars has I bet every game.
I've included a table at the end of this post that shows the week-by-week. I find it interesting as of Week 12, every week has been between 7-9 and 9-7, right around .500. So let's do the playoffs:
Kansas City +7 over INDIANAPOLIS
The main overriding factor here is that I think KC can win the game, so I'll take the 7 points. LJ has to have a good game and Peyton has to have a bad one for this to happen. I don't trust Herm at all, which is why my confidence in the pick isn't high. But at this point, betting against Peyton in the playoffs isn't necessarily a bad idea.
SEATTLE -2 over Dallas
Seattle is typically very good at home, although they were only 5-3 at home this year, and have lost their last 2 against San Fran and San Diego. This is a tough pick, and I think it could go either way, but since the spread is only 2, I'm taking the home team.
Sunday's picks to come tomorrow...
| Week |
Win |
Loss |
Tie |
| 1 |
1 |
1 |
|
| 2 |
10 |
6 |
|
| 3 |
7 |
6 |
1 |
| 4 |
9 |
5 |
|
| 5 |
8 |
4 |
2 |
| 6 |
7 |
5 |
|
| 7 |
5 |
6 |
1 |
| 8 |
12 |
2 |
|
| 9 |
3 |
11 |
|
| 10 |
7 |
9 |
|
| 11 |
11 |
4 |
1 |
| 12 |
9 |
7 |
|
| 13 |
9 |
7 |
|
| 14 |
9 |
7 |
|
| 15 |
7 |
9 |
|
| 16 |
7 |
8 |
1 |
| 17 |
9 |
7 |
|
| |
|
|
|
| |
130 |
104 |
6 |
| |
|
|
|
| |
|
Pct |
54.17% |
| |
|
|
|
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11:28 AM EST Saturday, December 30 2006
I was just below .500 7-8-1, but I did beat the coin by one game. Here's this week's picks:
NY GIANTS -2 over Washington
I would love to pick the Skins and use a good line that I heard "The Redskins put the last nail in the Coughlin", but in the year of the wacky NFC, I think the Giants pull it off and make the playoffs.
Jacksonville +2 over KANSAS CITY
Kansas City seems to be struggling and the win over Oakland last week did little to change my mind.
NEW ORLEANS +3 over Carolina
Why is New Orleans a home underdog?
HOUSTON -4 over Cleveland
Cleveland sucks
DALLAS -13 over Detroit
Dallas needs a big win to boost their confidence going into the playoffs and Detroit has been mailing it in for weeks.
New England +3 over TENNESSEE
I know the Vince Young story is interesting, but the magical ride ends here.
NY JETS -11.5 over Oakland
Oakland sucks.
Cincinnati -6 over Pittsburgh
Cincinnati wins, but it's not enough to make the playoffs.
Seattle +3 over TAMPA BAY
It's come to this, Seattle isn't even favored over Tampa.
MINNESOTA +2.5 over St. Louis
This could go either way, I'll take the points
SAN DIEGO -14 over Arizona
LT will have 5 touchdowns
San Francisco +10.5 over DENVER
Denver wins, but not by more than 10.
INDIANAPOLIS -9 over Miami
Indy is tough at home
Atlanta +8 over PHILLY
This falls into the "Any time a team is a 7 point or more underdog and you think they have a legitimate chance to win the game..." category. That category needs a shorter name.
BALTIMORE -9 over Buffalo
Baltimore wins big
CHICAGO -3 over Green Bay
Chicago's D will give Farve problems.
Last Week:
7-8-1
Overall:
95-78-1 (54.91%)
Coin Last Week:
6-9-1
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