7:51 PM EST Thursday, December 21 2006
Last week was a lame 7-9. After doing these picks all year, I've come to the conclusion that no one can be consistently correct 60% of the time. 60% is gambling equivalent of hitting .400, and 50% is like hitting .300. Continuing with the sports analogies, I guess that makes going 16-0 in a week the equivalent of bowling a 300.
To make things a little more interesting, I'm going to introduce "The Coin". I'm going to make my own picks on all the games, and then go through each game and make a pick based on a coin flip, heads is home, tails away. I want to see what the record of the coin will be. If I can't beat the coin over the course of the long run, that will prove that this is completely random. So here we go:
GREEN BAY -3.5 over Minnesota
This should be Brett Farve's last home game. I expect Farve to play well, and for everyone to remember this as Brett Farve's last great performance, not the embarrassing 5 INT debacle that will happen next week at Soldier Field. Thanks to the NFL Network/RCN Cable feud, I won't be watching this.
Coin: GREEN BAY
OAKLAND +6.5 over Kansas City
Both of these teams suck bad right now. I'll take the home team with 6.5 points. That is going against the 78.41% consensus on wagerline.
Coin: OAKLAND
Baltimore +3.5 over PITTSBURGH
This is going to be a tough one, because Pittsburgh would love to play spoiler and atone for the 27-0 shutout loss at Baltimore a few weeks ago. I think the Ravens will be ready, because they understand the importance of the first round bye.
Coin: Baltimore
Carolina +6.5 over ATLANTA
How am I supposed to pick games in which Carolina and Atlanta are involved? There is no score in this game that would even remotely surprise me.
Coin: ATLANTA
Chicago -5 over DETROIT
The Lions aren't just mailing it in, they are FedExing it in.
Coin: Chicago
Indianapolis -9.5 over HOUSTON
Despite my "lock of the week" call for Cincy last week, Indianapolis looked good. I think they are re-focused and are going to be tough to beat.
Coin: Indianapolis
JACKSONVILLE -3 over New England
I'm going with Jacksonville because they are at home and they need this more than New England does.
Coin: JACKSONVILLE
NY GIANTS -3 over New Orleans
Again, I'll take the home team because they need it more.
Coin: New Orleans
Tampa Bay +3 over CLEVELAND
Looks like Tim Rattay is giving Tampa a spark. On this concept of need, Tim Rattay needs another big game to prove last week wasn't a fluke. He's fighting for a starting job, and the team seems to be reacting to that.
Coin: Tampa Bay
Tennessee +4.5 over BUFFALLO
How can you bet against the hottest player in the league right now? If Tomlinson didn't 462 touchdowns this season, would Vince Young be an MVP candidate? Can you imagine the hype if Tennessee is somehow able to finish 9-7 and get into the playoffs?
Coin: BUFFALO
ST. LOUIS -2 over Washington
Here we are again with 2 completely unpredictable teams. I have no idea in this one, so I'll default to the home team.
Coin: ST. LOUIS
SAN FRANCISCO -4 over Arizona
The Niners are still alive in the sad NFC playoff picture, and could even win the division if Seattle is to lose at home against San Diego and on the road against Tampa Bay, whereas the Cardinals are falling apart.
Coin: SAN FRANCISCO
DENVER -3 over Cincinnati
Now this is a big game. You've got 2 good teams at 8-6 and 50 feet of snow in the ground. I think Denver will be able to run the ball, play solid defense and control the game. It really comes down to Cutler, if he can play well, not turn the ball over, and pick up some first downs to sustain drives, then Denver will win.
Coin: DENVER
SEATTLE +4.5 over San Diego
I know Seattle just lost by 10 at home against the Niners, but you have to take the 4.5 points.
Coin: San Diego
Philadelphia +7 over DALLAS
This falls under the "any time you think a team that is a touchdown underdog or more has a legitimate chance of winning the game outright, go with them" rule.
Coin: Philadelphia
MIAMI -2 over NY Jets
Miami has always been the Jets nemesis, and they'll continue to be this week as they play the role of spoiler.
Coin: NY Jets
Last Week: 7-9
Overall: 88-70-1 (55.7%)
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10:47 AM EST Sunday, December 17 2006
I'm again late in getting my picks up, but that's because I've been busy working on the new website. I've made some progress and I hoping to be able to finish it today. I upgraded my VPS hosting account to 256MB and Ubuntu 6.06, but typo is giving me more problems then ever. It seems like typo uses as much memory as possible. It's not even like a leak, it just happens almost immediately. It also just randomly dies. I'm not going to invest any time into debugging what's up, I'd rather just get the new site up.
Anyway, the picks. On the early games, I had Seattle and Dallas, so I'm 1-1. I didn't see either of these games, because they are on the NFL Network. Now this I don't understand. I have the NFL Network, yet for some reason, during the games, they show like NFL Films or something. The run a message across the top saying call your local cable operator, so I guess I should do that. But my point is that I get the NFL Network, just not the games. I don't know who to be mad at, but I'm mad at somebody.
SEATTLE +10 over San Francisco
What is Seattle's deal? They used to be a lock at home. It's embarrassing that they get to stumble to the finish, end up 9-7, maybe 8-8, and still win the division and get a home playoff game. Meanwhile, Cincinnati is going to finish 11-5 and be going on the road, probably back to Indy, in the first week of the playoffs.
Dallas -3.5 over ATLANTA
It looks like the NFC representative in the super bowl has to be Chicago, New Orleans or Dallas.
BALTIMORE -11.5 over Cleveland
Hopefully Derek Anderson is in there and the Baltimore defense can rattle his cage.
GREEN BAY -5.5 over Detroit
With the first selection in the 2007 NFL Draft, the Detroit Lions select Brady Quinn.
NEW ENGLAND -11 over Houston +11
New England is a tough team to read. After the 35-0 blow out at Lambeau and a 17-13 win against the best team in the NFC, you expected them to roll right into the playoffs. But then an unimpressive 28-21 home win against the Lions and a 21-0 shutout loss at Miami has everyone wondering again. But I think they'll get it going again this week.
Jacksonville -3 over TENNESSEE
Vince Young is on the cover of SI this week, so that makes this pick easy.
BUFFALO -1 over Miami
When in doubt in a game with no spread, take the home team.
N.Y. Jets +3 over MINNESOTA
There are playoff implications for both teams here, but I think I would actually take the Jets straight up, so I'll take them for sure with the points.
CAROLINA +3 over Pittsburgh
Wait, Pittsburgh is favored by 3 on the road? Am I reading this right? Against a team fighting for their playoff lives?
CHICAGO -13.5 over Tampa Bay
Riiiigghhhhhtttttttt.
NEW ORLEANS -9.5 over Washington
Washington sucks, New Orleans does not.
Denver -3 over ARIZONA
Cutler showed me something in the 2nd half last week, I bet he continues this week.
OAKLAND -2 over St. Louis +2
The Rams have issues.
Philadelphia +5 over N.Y. GIANTS
I'm taking the points, this could go either way.
Kansas City -8 over SAN DIEGO
KC was a disaster last week and San Diego looked impressive, so this is an easy one, right? Not so fast my friend. Look for the Cheifs to give the Chargers a fight in this one.
Cincinnati +3.5 over INDIANAPOLIS
LOCK OF THE WEEK. Cincinnati is scary good right now. Jacksonville isn't looking too bad either. The playoffs are going to be tough in the AFC this year. By the way, if you think these last two picks are biased towards the Ravens getting home field advantage throughout the playoffs, you know me too well.
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8:43 AM EST Thursday, December 14 2006
I wasn't able to get my picks posted online last week, but I did make them. I was on the road a Kansas City for the Ravens big win over the Chiefs. I went 9-7, bringing the overall record to 81-61-1, %56.64. If you do the math, if I were to have bet $11 each game to win $10, I would be up $139 on the season. A couple of notes looking back on these picks. First, I wrote these down early in the week, and once I would have known Weinke would be starting, I would have picked the Giants. On the other 6 games I got wrong, CLE, NE, SF, NYJ, DEN, and DAL, I still think those were pretty good picks, other than maybe CLE. I haven't had a bad week lately, but I haven't had a good one either. Hopefully I can get 10 or so this week. Here are the picks for reference:
Cleveland +7.5 over PITTSBURGH
Atlanta -3 over TAMPA BAY
Baltimore +3 over KANSAS CITY
JACKSONVILLE +2 over Indianapolis
New England -3.5 over MIAMI
CINCINNATI -10.5 over Oakland
Tennessee +1.5 over Houston
Philadelphia -1 over WASHINGTON
CAROLINA -3 over NY Giants
Minnesota +2 over DETROIT
SAN FRANCISCO -4.5 over Green Bay
ARIZONA +3.5 over Seattle
NY JETS -3.5 over Buffalo
Denver +7 over SAN DIEGO
DALLAS -6.5 over New Orleans
Chicago -6 over ST. LOUIS
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2:45 PM EST Sunday, December 3 2006
I had a pedestrian 9-7 last week, which brings the season record to 72-54-1. I'm a little late posting my picks this week, but I did get them into wagerline on time. Here's what I came up with:
Arizona +6 over ST. LOUIS
I like Leinart
Atlanta -1 over WASHINGTON
I think this will be "turn around week". Atlanta will be one of those teams to turn it around.
NEW ENGLAND -13.5 over Detroit
Brady and co. rolls
TENNESSEE +7.5 over Indianapolis
Whenever you think a touchdown or more underdog has a chance to win the game outright, go with the underdog
CLEVELAND +4.5 over Kansas City
Too many points
DA BEARS -9 over Minnesota
NY Jets over GREEN BAY
Brett Farve continues to kill the pack
San Diego -6 over BUFFALO
LT
San Francisco +7 over NEW ORLEANS
Whenever you think a touchdown or more underdog has a chance to win the game outright, go with the underdog
MIAMI +1 over Jacksonville
When in doubt with a game with no spread, go with the home team
Houston +3 over OAKLAND
Whatever
NY GIANTS +3 over Dallas
Turn around week
Tampa Bay +7 over PITTSBURGH
I don't know why I picked Tampa. Pittsburgh will probably win big. I just don't like Pittsburgh.
DENVER -4 over Seattle
Seattle on the road plus Jay Culter shocking the world.
Speaking of shocking the world, how about the Wichita State Shockers? Undefeated with road wins at #6 LSU and #15 Syracuse. KU lost to DePaul, will the Shockers be ranked ahead of the Jayhawks?
PHILADELPHIA +3 over Carolina
Here's another "what was I thinking" pick. I went will Philly, but looking back on it, I think Carolina will cover. Nonetheless, we'll go with the Jeff Garcia lead Eagles.
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11:44 AM EST Wednesday, November 22 2006
Last week was good at 11-4-1, bringing the total record to 63-47-1, %57.27. I'm gonna get my picks in early this week, with Thanksgiving coming up only two days away.
MIAMI -2.5 over Detroit
The intriguing matchup of this game is obviously Joey Harrington making his return to Detroit. The fans of motor city are sure to show Joey Harrington how much miss him. "They're not saying boo, they're saying Mooooooooovers". So Joey Harrington is the key to this game. Will he rise to the challenge and stick it to the city that booed him unmercifully, or will he kill the Dolphins with untimely interceptions? Let's use his past Thanksgiving Day performances as a measure:
November 24, 2005
Harrington is benched before the half with 61 yards and an interception, Lions loose to the Falcons 27-7.
November 25, 2004
Harrington is benched in the third quarter with 156 yards, no touchdowns and no interceptions. Lions are killed by the Colts, 41-9.
November 27, 2003
Harrington leads the Lions to victory over the Packers, 22-14. He was 21 of 32 for 183 yards, completing 15 of his first 17 attempts. If I remember this game correctly, Harrington had the flu, played through it and played well.
So the last 2 years were a disaster, which probably explains why he's in Miami right now. But 3 years ago, he did play well and helped his team win, so he's 1 for 3. I think Harrington will be fired up to stick it to his old team, plus Miami is working on a 3 game winning streak, which includes wins against Chicago and Kansas City.
Tampa Bay +11 over DALLAS
Dallas looks to be on a roll following last week's win over the colts, but I think 11 points is a lot. If the Bucs can run the ball well and avoid turning the ball over, I think Gradkowski could have a big day.
KANSAS CITY +1 over Denver
Trent Green has to have a big day in order for KC to pull this one out. LJ won't be able to run all over Denver tough D, but I'll bet against Jake Plummer on the road anytime.
MINNESOTA -6.5 over Arizona
Denny Green will have an unpleasant return to Minnesota because the Vikings need this one to stay in the NFC playoff hunt.
Carolina -4.5 over WASHINGTON
Looks like we're finally starting to get some reasonable spreads on Carolina.
Cincinnati -3 over CLEVELAND
Carson Palmer and Chad Johnson are on a roll, I can't believe this spread isn't higher.
NY JETS -6 over Houston
The J-E-T-S need this win to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Jacksonville -3 over BUFFALO
Jacksonville is coming off a big win and Buffalo is coming off a devastating loss.
ATLANTA -3 over New Orleans
I think the wheels are starting to come off of New Orleans. Atlanta needs this win to get them back in the NFC South title hunt.
BALTIMORE -3 over Pittsburgh
Shame on NBC for not making this the night game. Instead of having a game involving two division rivals on a roll, one with the 2nd best record in the AFC and one defending superbowl champs, which is sure to be a battle, we've got the one-loss Colts that no one cares about anymore and the Jeff Garcia-lead Eagles. The Ravens will have Ray Lewis coming back off of a back injury to help bolster the defense, and the Steelers might be missing their best receiver, Hines Ward.
San Francisco +6 over ST. LOUIS
Didn't St. Louis get shoutout last week? Didn't the 49ers beattle Seattle?
SAN DIEGO -13.5 over Oakland
Too Much LT
NEW ENGLAND -3 over Chicago
New England needs this game more than the Bears do. The NFC is a joke yet again this year, with only one team with a record better than 6-4, and that's the Bears at 9-1. The Bears have an easy schedule the remainder of the way, with home games against Minnesota, Green Bay, and Tampa Bay and road games against St. Louis and Detroit. They'll be 14-2 with homefield through out the playoffs. I'm sure flights from Chicago to Miami for the week of Feb. 4th are already getting expensive.
Meanwhile, New England is in a fight with four or teams with at least 7 wins, Indy, Baltimore, San Diego and Denver. Don't count out Kansas City or Jacksonville either, as they are both teams that could get hot at the end of the season and end up with 10 or more wins. After New England's loss at Denver last year, you can bet that they have their sights set on securing homefield advantage, and if last week's 35-0 win at Green Bay is any sign, they could be on their way.
TENNESSEE +3 over NY Giants
To break this matchup down, let's take a look at these teams last 4 games. The Giants:
Sun 10/29 Tampa Bay W 17-3
Sun 11/5 Houston W 14-10
Sun 11/12 Chicago L 20-38
Mon 11/20 at Jacksonville L 10-26
Unimpressive wins against 2 poor teams at home, then a disasterous loss against the Bears at home, then a disaster loss on the road, followed by Coughlin admitting he has no idea what's going on. Eli looks absolutely horrible right now, making bad decisions and throwing interceptions. Now, what about the Titans?
Sun 10/29 Houston W 28-22
Sun 11/5 at Jacksonville L 7-37
Sun 11/12 Baltimore L 26-27
Sun 11/19 at Philadelphia W 31-13
So they both lost at Jacksonville and beat Houston at home, so we'll call that a wash. Then, Tennessee has a tough loss at home to Baltimore (who has the 2nd best record in the AFC, let's see how many times I can mention that in this article) and a convincing win on the road against Philly. So when you look at it logically, Tennessee seems like the obvious favorite. But they're not, they 3 point underdogs at home.
Why? It's because we refuse to believe that Vince Young might be a better quarterback than Eli Manning. I think we find out the answer to that question for sure this Sunday.
Philadelphia +9 over INDIANAPOLIS
I think Philly is going to re-group after losing McNabb. With a week to prepare, Jeff Garcia, will be ready for Indy. Brian Westbrook should have a big day. Philly has the 4th ranked passing defense, which should be able to keep Manning from going crazy.
SEATTLE -9 over Green Bay
Seattle gets Hasselback back this week, plus this will be Alexander's first home game back. Seattle is tough at home, they get the lead early and then pile it on as Brett Farve starts to rack up the interceptions.
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